YWO NEWS | COMMODITIES | DEEP DIVE / ANALYSIS
WTI crude futures for August delivery soared 3.34% to $80.75 a barrel by 6:24 a.m. ET on Tuesday, while international benchmark Brent for September delivery climbed 4.45% to $87.01, extending gains after Brent had already advanced 9.6% in the prior session, CNBC’s Lee Ying Shan reported. The dual catalyst: President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. will levy fees on all vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz — “at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped” — and a simultaneous move to reinstate a blockade of Iranian ports near the strait.
The blockade wasn’t just a threat left dangling. U.S. Central Command confirmed it would take effect at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, per CNBC. The confirmation by U.S. Central Command provided additional operational detail regarding the announced measures, according to CNBC.
The Hormuz Arithmetic
Roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies transited the Strait of Hormuz before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, CNBC reported. Shipping traffic had slumped after Iran began targeting vessels in the waterway in early March, then started to recover following an interim agreement between Washington and Tehran. Tuesday’s announcements put that recovery squarely in doubt.
Trump framed the toll via Truth Social, describing the United States as the “guardian” of the strait — a framing that simultaneously justified the fee and signalled Washington’s willingness to control the chokepoint militarily if challenged. The 20% levy on all cargo, combined with the reinstated port blockade, contributed to increased attention on geopolitical risks affecting global energy markets.
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Citi Flags Escalation Risk, Notes Election-Cycle Wildcard
Citi warned in a report published early Tuesday that Trump’s proposal “materially raises the risk of further military escalation,” CNBC reported. The bank went further, writing that “the possibility that the Iranian regime walks away from the MoU until after the mid-term US elections has also risen, a scenario which would most likely see higher for longer oil prices.”
The Price Table
| Asset | Move | Level | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI (Aug. delivery) | +3.34% | $80.75/bbl | 6:24 a.m. ET, 14 Jul |
| Brent (Sep. delivery) | +4.45% | $87.01/bbl | 6:24 a.m. ET, 14 Jul |
| Brent (prior session) | +9.6% | — | 13 Jul session |
Source: CNBC
Across the two sessions, Brent recorded a cumulative gain of approximately 13.05%, according to CNBC market data.
Developments in the Ceasefire
The source material is careful with its language, and so is the market. The Iran ceasefire has “showed signs of collapse,” per the Investing.com report — not a confirmed termination. The distinction reflects continuing uncertainty regarding the geopolitical situation. .
Previous developments were accompanied by changes in shipping activity and oil prices, according to CNBC. Brent crude remains above the levels seen before the events of 28 February, reflecting the continued market focus on geopolitical developments affecting global energy markets. Market participants will continue to monitor developments relating to the memorandum of understanding (MoU) and any official announcements that may affect regional stability. Citi also noted the potential for further developments depending on the direction of negotiations, according to CNBC.
Market participants are also awaiting further details regarding the implementation of the announced measures. As one analyst cited by CNBC observed, “announcement is not implementation.” At the time of publication, the operational and legal framework for the proposed 20% cargo levy on transit through the Strait of Hormuz had not been fully detailed. According to the available information, matters such as implementation, potential exemptions and the applicable legal framework had not yet been clarified.
What’s on the Calendar
The EIA’s weekly petroleum supply report, which covers crude inventories, refinery runs, and product stocks, is a recurring focal point for crude pricing — the schedule is available at the EIA. The report will provide updated information on U.S. crude inventories and supply conditions.
CME settlement data is published daily and provides information on crude futures pricing — CME Group data daily. The 4 p.m. ET Tuesday blockade implementation window, per USCENTRALCOM’s confirmation cited by CNBC, is the immediate operational marker.
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